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Fact Sheet

Long-Term Forecasting of Commodity Flows Method with Application to Mississippi River Grains and World Trade

 
         

 

Start Date:  Sep 2003

Projected
End Date:
 Sep 2007

 

POC:

POC

 


 

Problem Addressed:  

The international distribution of grains is influenced by many factors, including agricultural production, popular tastes, population and income growth, and agricultural and trade policies. Changes in any of these variables will impact the international distribution of grains and oilseeds, and shipments through the US waterways.

 


 

Objective:

 

The purpose of this study is to develop a spatial equilibrium model to forecast international commodity flows from a specific region. The methodology will be generally applicable to a broad range of commodities or regions, but the focus will be on the world grain trade and expected market responses to evolving competitive pressures and structural changes.

 


 

Benefits:  

This model will enable planners to estimate service-induced demand changes and the likely impact on navigation in specific regions.

 


 

Status:

 

Completed

 


 

Contract Data:

120171, A1370

 

Progress:

Summary of Presentation by William Wilson (23 KB, pdf)

Presentation by William Wilson, June 21, 2004 (2.0 MB, pdf)

Presentation by William Wilson, July 6, 2005 (1.7 MB, ppt)

Report by William Wilson, Erik DeVuyst, Won Koo, Bruce Dahl, and Skip Taylor, September 30, 2005 (570 KB, pdf)

Report Appendix by William Wilson, Erik DeVuyst, Won Koo, Bruce Dahl, and Skip Taylor, September 30, 2005 (941 KB, pdf)

Paper by William W. Wilson, Won Koo, Bruce Dahl, Richard Taylor, Sep 14,2007 (268 KB, pdf)

 

Products (Bookshelf/Toolbox):

Paper by William Wilson, Won Koo, Richard Taylor, and Bruce Dahl, July 30, 2004 (480 KB, pdf)

Paper by William Wilson, Won Koo, Richard Taylor, and Bruce Dahl, November 15, 2004 (470 KB, pdf)

Report by William W Wilson, Eric DeVuyst, Richard Taylor, Bruce Dahl and Won Koo, Dec 15,2006 (3.3 MB, pdf)

 


 

Related Links:

 

Longer-Term Forecasting of Grain Flows and Delay Costs on the Mississippi River You are leaving a Federal Government web site. Click this icon for more information.

 


 

Revised 23 Sep 2011

Source: Navigation Economic Technologies Program

Download the reader for PDF documents.

 

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