Vol I, Issue 10 October 2005

Final Draft of Global Grain Forecasting Model is Released
The final draft of the “Global Grain Forecasting Model” is complete and ready for independent peer review. The purpose of this study was to develop a methodology and analytical model to forecast shipments through the Mississippi River system. Dr. William Wilson and his colleagues at North Dakota State University developed a spatial optimization model of world grain trade. Important parameters for the model are forecasted for relevant periods forward and used to evaluate changes in flows through targeted logistical channels. The methodology is generally applicable to a broad range of commodities.

Fact Sheet | Paper (pdf, 570KB) | Paper Appendix (pdf, 941KB)

Advances in Transportation Theory
NETS researchers Drs. Simon Anderson of the University of Virginia and Wesley Wilson of the University of Oregon have issued a preliminary report examining policy actions to improve the transportation sector when both market power and endogenous regions are present. This evaluation extends the traditional Samuelson and Takayama-Judge model (S-TJ model) of trade between fixed regions under perfect competition to examine the affects of the importance of these assumptions to the welfare estimate of improvements. The main objective is to allow for market power and endogenous regions in the canonical models of trading regions, in the tradition of Samuelson and Takayama-Judge.

Fact Sheet | Paper (pdf, 327KB)

Quality of Corps Navigation Data Documented
Mark Lisney of the Institute for Water Resources has released a study documenting the major data sources used to conduct Corps of Engineers inland navigation economic analyses. The study examines the deficiencies and errors in the data and the potential consequences. Researchers working to evaluate water resource investments have long complained about anomalies in the data used in their analyses, according to the study. The amount of data gathered by the Corps is vast and overall quality is good, however, there are persistent issues about which analysts must be aware, the study indicates. Lisney provides an overview of these issues for the benefit of future analysts.

Fact Sheet | Paper (pdf, 43KB)

Study to Analyze Container Shipping Infrastructure Demands and Risks
Dr. William Wilson of North Dakota State University will lead a study that will document changes in container shipping patterns, both domestically and internationally, to determine appropriate models for evaluating the impact of these changes on infrastructure requirements. Shipping patterns and modes are evolving very rapidly in response to changes in world economies, North American industry and consumer demands, as well as technology and economies of shipping. These changes could have far-reaching impacts on port development as well as interior shipping infrastructure.

The researchers will review previous studies on container shipping with a focus on infrastructure and projections; describe historical movements in world trade; describe and analyze historical movements in U.S. markets as well as the rail market and ocean shipping economies; and review and critique alternative models that can be used to analyze flows, restrictions, expansion possibilities and make projections. In addition, alternatives for handling and quantifying risk will be identified. The study is a precursor to a model forecasting container flows.

Fact Sheet

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Navigation Economic Technologies Program, US Army Corps of Engineers